Cha-am Jamal, Thailand

History of the global warming scare Chapter 1: 1980-1985

Posted on: May 9, 2010

1980, GLOBAL WARMING TREND IS HINTED: A comparison of the period 1974-1978 to the period 1930-1934 shows that (a) there is less packed ice fringing Antarctica and that (b) the average surface temperature in the zone of northern melting snows is 0.9 C warmer. These data are evidence of a warming trend. Antarctica is melting due to a global warming trend.

1980, CARBON DIOXIDE COULD CHANGE WEATHER: Since 1850 and the Industrial Revolution we have doubled atmospheric CO2 and if we  continue to burn fossil fuels it could double again in the next fifty years (2030) because fossil fuels produce carbon dioxide faster than plants can absorb them. Warming could cause the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to crack and slide into the ocean to raise sea levels by 16 feet and submerge Florida. There are too many uncertainties to asses the economic impact.

1981, AIR POLLUTANTS COMPLICATE GLOBAL WARMING PROBLEM: Chlorofluorocarbons, like carbon dioxide, also trap heat and cause global warming that can lead to melting polar ice caps and rising sea levels. The combination of CFC and CO2 emitted by human activity in the 1980s will raise temperature by 0.2 to 0.3 C rising above the level of the 1930s, the warmest period of this century. The mean surface temperature along the spring and summer line of melting snow in the Northern Hemisphere has gone up. These measurements were taken where the climate models had predicted they would be. The decline in fall and winter temperatures in the 1970s was an exception to the general rule. In addition, CFCs also threaten the protective ozone shield against harmful solar radiation.

1981, ICE CAP MELTING FORECAST: Institute for Space Studies, NYC: Rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere could bring a global warming of unprecedented magnitude melting the polar icecaps and flooding lowlands in the next century. The temperature rise could be 4.5 to 8 F depending on the growth in fossil fuel consumption. A doubling of CO2 will cause a temperature rise of 6 F. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable to rapid disintegration and melting. A global mean temperature rise of 3.6 F could cause a rise of 9 F at Antarctica melting the Ice Sheet and raising sea levels by 15 to 20 feet and flooding 25% of Florida and Louisiana within a span of 100 years or less.

1982, GOVERNMENTS IGNORING GLOBAL WARMING TREND: The use of fossil fuels will cause atmospheric carbon dioxide to double in the next 40 to 100 years raising temperatures by an average of 5 F by virtue of the greenhouse effect because carbon dioxide traps heat. The warming will cause polar ice to melt. In high northern latitudes spring will come earlier and earlier and winter later and later causing a decline in soil moisture. Warmer temperatures and less rainfall will devastate agriculture in much of the United States and the Soviet Union but a more regular monsoon pattern in India will increase rice production. Glaciers will melt and raise sea levels. But the government is not taking these forecasts seriously because scientists have not been able to communicate useful information to them and because some scientists have disputed these forecasts saying that warming can be self-correcting because it causes the formation of more clouds that reflect sunlight. Because there will be winners and losers from global warming, scientists cannot tell policymakers whether the net effect will be positive or negative. There is not a clear message for policymakers. The US government has cut research funds for the study of global warming from $14 million to $9 million eliminating the study of the social and political impact of global warming. Global warming is not a catastrophe because rich nations have the resources to deal with it and most of the developing countries will actually be better off.

1982, GLOBAL MEAN SEA LEVEL AN INDICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, Two NOAA scientists published a paper in Science to say that in the period 1940-1980 50,000 cubic km of polar ice has melted by global warming and the sea level has risen by thermal expansion as well as the added water from the ice melt. Global warming is “due in some degree presumably to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide” is self-canceling because melting ice absorbs latent heat and cools the ocean. As polar ice melts, the resultant re-distribution of the earth’s mass slows down its rotational speed. In the 40-year period studied, earth’s rotational speed was thus slowed by 0.00000004%.

1983, EPA GIVES GLOOMY PREDICTIONS ON GREENHOUSE EFFECT: The world is powerless to prevent a greenhouse effect that will dramatically alter food production and living patterns. Instead of fighting the inevitable world leaders should be planning how to cope with its catastrophic impact. Coastal cities without sea-walls will be flooded. The climate of NYC will be like the climate now found in Florida. The US wheat belt will move northward. All because of global warming caused by a buildup of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. By the year 2100 these changes will produce catastrophic results. We should respond to this challenge with a sense of urgency. The warming process now set in place is irreversible and the dire predictions of global warming can only be delayed by a few years even with Draconian restrictions on fossil fuels. By the year 2000 the temperature could be 1.1 degrees higher, 3.6 degrees higher by 2040, and 9 degrees higher by 2100. The temperature rise in the poles will be three times higher melting the polar ice caps and causing sea levels to rise 3.5 inches by 2000, one foot by 2025, and five feet by 2100. More research is needed for better planning to cope with the changes. Some scientists expressed reservations about the report saying that the temperature and sea level rise predictions were probably exaggerated and that the alarmist tone of the report is unrealistic.

1983, EXPERTS DISAGREE ON GREENHOUSE EFFECT:  EPA predicts that the increase in average global temperature will become noticeable in 1990 and melting polar ice caps will cause sea levels to rise inundating low-lying areas. Some scientists disagree saying that these changes will come much later possibly in 2050. They compare the global warming alarm to ozone depletion which turned out to be less harmful than predicted. The dire prediction of an impending ice age was also overblown. The global warming calamity is exaggerated because the planet’s self-correcting mechanisms are ignored. They also suggested seaweed farming as a way of mitigating carbon dioxide emissions.

1984, CLIMATE SCIENTISTS NOT SURE THAT GLOBAL WARMING WILL CAUSE SEA LEVELS TO RISE.  Melting of polar ice caps by global warming will cause sea levels to rise by 4 to 7 feet by the year 2100. Or perhaps it would rise by only 2 feet by 2100 with further rapid rise possible after 2100 if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet begins to disintegrate. Or perhaps, warming will cause increased snowfall in the interior of Antarctica where the snow does not melt. That would cause sea levels to fall. In the last interglacial period, the North Atlantic was much warmer but the southern hemisphere was not.

1984, GLOBAL WARMING REDUCIBLE: Global warming can be reduced by increasing the efficiency of fossil fueled power plants and by speeding up conversion to nuclear, solar, and wind power. Nuclear can be significantly cheaper than coal. Significant warming is inevitable but it can be mitigated if the effort is global and immediate.

1984, RESEARCHER DOUBTS GLOBAL WARMING: The global warming predictions are based on land temperature measurements only. When you add in air temperatures taken by ships, there is no warming trend from 1949 to 1972 even though carbon dioxide produced by advanced economies spread throughout the world within one year. It is now widely believed that the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide will melt polar ice caps and raise sea levels.

1984, GLOBAL WARMING CURB POSSIBLE: The global warming trend is due to the greenhouse effect. Mankind can forestall this trend by speeding up the development of nuclear power and other alternatives to fossil fuels  and thereby reducing atmospheric emissions of carbon dioxide.

1984, DAILY SHOWER MAY BE LUXURY IN WATER-SHORT FUTURE: Global warming caused by carbon dioxide pollution will cause noticeable warming by 2000 and increase the evaporation rate of water causing the level of the Great Lakes to drop 30% by 2050. These changes will cause a prolonged severe drought that will turn the American prairies into a dust bowl in the next few decades.


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